By Farid Abdi Mohamed Omar.
The deeply flawed electoral process in the just concluded Presidential, Parliamentary and Civic elections characterized by fraud and irregularities threatens to plunge Kenya into political turmoil. Long considered an oasis of peace in a volatile region dogged by political instability and violent armed conflict, Kenya, a country that has largely escaped the bloodshed and mayhem that has decimated its neighbours, faces a grim prospect of instability if the fall out from the hotly disputed elections are not settled through proper constitutional or popular mechanisms that can guarantee electoral transparency.
After a lengthy delay, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) declared incumbent President, Mwai Kibaki the winner, over his rival Mr. Raila Odinga, the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) who led the polls throughout the election's campaign. The final votes tally is hotly disputed by the ODM and a number of election observers who maintain that the process was marred by rigging and voter irregularities.
According to most Kenyans, “constitutionalism” certainly is not a viable option as the Kenyan judiciary, staffed with President Kibaki's cronies is a rubber stamp of the corrupt Kibaki regime. Asked whether he would seek the intervention of the courts, Raila Odinga responded that Kenya’s courts could not salvage the situation since they are in tight control of the Government. “We will not go to the courts controlled by President Kibaki”. Mr. Odinga hopes that a verifiable, fair recount could help Kenya break the current political impasse that threatens to spiral out of control.
Since the counting process started late last Thursday after polling closed in all 210 constituencies, Raila Odinga led steadily and in some crucial stage, led with a million votes over his rival, Mr. Mwai Kibaki of the PNU. Sensing imminent defeat for the PNU, the (ECK), long known for its close ties with the Kibaki Government, moved fast to doctor results from Kibaki strongholds in an overt rigging process that turned the tide infavour of Kibaki. From voter tallies announced at polling stations, it clearly emerged by early Saturday that Raila Odinga had won the elections. But the ECK suspended the release of the final tally creating uncertainly throughout Kenya with opposition leaders and supporters alleging that the pro-Kibaki ECK was doctoring the votes to unconstitutionally declare Kibaki the winner.
Pandemonium broke out at the ECK headquarters at the Nairobi Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC) as opposition leaders demanded the ECK release final tallies to avert imminent chaos in the streets. The ECK rejected opposition demands, canceled the release of final votes sending the entire nation on the brink of violent unrest. When the ECK finally made its final statement on Sunday, the ECK chairman Samuel Kivuitu declared President Kibaki duly elected with 4,584,721 votes against ODM Presidential candidate Raila Odinga who had 4,352,993 votes.
Violence erupted across the nation and especially in the opposition strongholds in Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley and Coast Provinces where the Police clashed with irate Raila supporters in Kisumu, Kakamega, Kitale, Eldoret, Bungoma, Busia, Kericho, Mombasa etc. More violence was reported in Nairobi where the ODM retains a large following and by late Sunday, twenty people were reportedly killed and many others wounded. In Nairobi's Kibera slum, police fired live rounds and tear-gas to disperse Mr Odinga's supporters, while a blackout also plunged the area into darkness.
In an attempt to curtail public opinion and mass mobilization through media, the Daily Nation reported that the Government, through Internal Security minister John Michuki, suspended all live broadcasts by television and radio stations and threatened to arrest anyone publishing alarming materials.
Barely one hour after the doctored results were announced, Kibaki was sworn in as President in a hasty ceremony held at the State House Gardens. This is a clear break from the traditional Presidential inauguration ceremony that normally takes place at a public rally in Uhuru Park a week later after the winning President has named his full cabinet and slate of permanent secretaries. The rushed swearing-in ceremony is meant to allow President Kibaki consolidate power swiftly, have effective access to Kenya's security organs such as the armed forces, the police and the general service unit and to pre-empt any opposition attempts to re-organize or force immdeidate vote recounts.
Shortly before Mr. Kivuitu announced the “final tally”, the Standard reported that an official from the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) has come out in the open and declared that “the poll body is rigging the elections in favour of President Mwai Kibaki.” Mr Kipkemoi Kirui, a parliamentary official, seconded to ECK was led to the press conference addressed by ODM leaders led by Presidential candidate, Mr Raila Odinga.
He wondered why the ECK “was not listening to its officers and allowed its officers to temper with the results”.
"My conscience could not allow me to see what I was seeing and keep quiet," said Kirui adding: "I have seen form 16A delivered by returning officers… and the results announced here by the chairman are different".
The officer said "blatant and shameless alteration of documents "was being done particularly by "information technology officials."
He said the results for Coast and upper Eastern provinces were the most affected, and named Moyale, Laisamis, Saku and Matuga among other six constituencies.
Even western election observers questioned the credibility of the results stating that the process was flawed. Among them, the Chief Observer of the EU Election Observation Mission (EU - EOM), Mr Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, Member of the European Parliament, said that the ECK “has not succeeded in establishing the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates”.
He added: "We regret that it has not been possible to address irregularities about which both the EU EOM and the ECK have evidence”.
According to the Standard, the result for the Molo constituency, for example, was announced in the presence of EU- EOM Observers at the constituency tally centre as 50,145 votes for President Kibaki, while the ECK declared the result for the President to be 75,261 votes. This scenario is repeated in other constituencies in which the tallies released by officials in polling stations were doctored and altered by the ECK.
Kibaki's “re-election” defies all logic given the fact that in the concurrent Parliamentary polls, his corrupt cabinet minsters were sent packing by voters as 20 ministers lost their seats. This was a resounding rejection by the voters of Kibaki's Government. Among those who lost their seats were Vice President Muudi Awori, and key cabinet ministers including Minister for Foreign Affairs, Minister for Defence, Minster for Health, Minister for Labour etc. It is difficult to see how Kibaki can legitimately govern as he clearly lacks any sizeable Parliamentary support base required to form a Government.
Before the ECK released its final results, Mr Odinga declared that Kenyans had elected him and asked the President to concede defeat.
He told an international news conference at ODM’s Pentagon offices: “The people know that they voted to reject the incumbent and put in place a President and a Government they have faith in. That is why they have elected me President.”
However, he appealed for national calm, telling ODM supporters not to cause any chaos or destroy property.
Mr Odinga is quoted in the Daily Nation as saying :“Kenyans are deeply disturbed and angered by the attempt of this Government to steal this election through a process that was fraudulent at every step of the way.”
He said he was not going to accept a Kibaki win when the results from all parts of Kenya did not give him the mandate.
“I cannot and would not accept a Kibaki win; the results are there, if I had lost I would have accepted, this is fait accompli (over),” Mr Odinga said.
Mr. Odinga warned that the consequences of electoral fraud are too grave for Kenya. He gave the example of Ivory Coast, one of the most successful countries in West Africa that has slid into chaos. The Ivorian analogy is significant in that the West African nation had in its hey days of political stability, often been compared to peaceful Kenya, that has always avoided the wave of conflicts afflicting its East and Central African neighbours.
The ODM leader talked of rigging in some regions, saying that even with the rigged results, ODM tallies from all 210 stations would still have placed him ahead of President Kibaki.
He said some ECK officials who were dissatisfied with the election had provided the ODM with information that figures in some of President Kibaki’s strongholds were inflated so that he could emerge the winner.
In a televised press conference, Mr. Odinga said that: "The train of democracy in Kenya is unstoppable like the flow of the Nile." As Mr Odinga spoke, the government suspended all live television and radio reports, ending the transmission of his news conference.
"People who want to commit a crime do so in darkness," he said afterwards. By late Sunday evening, all Television and Radio stations in Kenya remained closed under strict orders from the Government.
The political stakes in Kenya are high with a looming political confrontation that could plunge the nation into upheavals. The BBC has reported that Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement has invited its supporters to an alternative inauguration ceremony in the capital, Nairobi, on Monday afternoon to declare him the "People's President".
"We know that the people of Kenya elected Raila Amolo Odinga as their legitimate President and they are ready to see him serve democratically in the capacity," it said in a statement.
After the ODM's announcement, Kenyan police warned Mr Odinga that he would face arrest if he went ahead with the demonstration. Some observers believe that the Ivory Coast scenario, which saw a mass popular uprising in the streets of Abidjan oust former Military leader Robert Guei, may unfold in Kenya. There are concerns that outraged Kenyans may threaten to storm the state house(Kenya's seat of power), if the final votes are not recounted and the presumed winner, Raila Odinga, is not duly declared the outright winner. However, this is not the route Raila hopes to pursue. The ODM leader has persistently called for calm urging his supporters to seek a peaceful resolution to the current deadlock.
In this elections, Kenya was on the threshold of setting an important democratic precedent. But uncertainty over the electoral fraud that has created tension and unrest could spell doom for the nation. Democratic forces around the world should condemn the outright rigging in the Kenyan Presidential Polls and call for a fair recount, free of irregularities, to allow for a peaceful democratic transition.